How HUBL investigations work

A HUBL investigation starts with a question or decision and develops as HUBL learns what matters, investigates evidence, tests assumptions and works towards a view you can inspect.

Start with the question or decision

Bring HUBL the decision you are trying to make, not only the first question that comes to mind. A clear decision gives the investigation a useful direction and makes it possible to recognise what would change the answer.

Understand the context

HUBL may ask about your goals, constraints, time horizon, authority, known facts and the outcome you need. You can provide context, documents, evidence, corrections and preferences. HUBL does not always have access to every external source, so important context may need to come from you.

Work out what matters

The investigation separates the central decision from the questions around it. It identifies the evidence, assumptions, dependencies and uncertainties that could materially change the view, so the work does not become an unstructured collection of information.

Investigate the evidence

HUBL can examine available evidence and distinguish different kinds of basis:

• Source fact: information attributed to an identifiable source.
• User-provided information: context or evidence supplied by the person investigating.
• Assumption: something important that is being treated as true but may need testing.
• HUBL interpretation: a conclusion drawn from the available evidence.
• Derived comparison: a calculation or comparison made from stated inputs.
• Qualification: a condition that narrows what the evidence can support.

A fluent sentence is not automatically proof. The basis and limits of important conclusions should remain inspectable.

Test assumptions and challenge the case

HUBL should not only gather material that supports the first apparent answer. It should examine contradictory evidence, downside scenarios, alternative explanations and the conditions under which another option would be preferable.

Evidence can change HUBL's view. A change should follow new evidence, context or constraints, not an arbitrary shift in wording.

Compare alternatives

A useful recommendation shows what else was considered. Alternatives may include acting now, running a smaller test, changing the approach, waiting for more evidence or not proceeding. The right next step is not always a binary yes or no.

Form the current view or recommendation

A Current HUBL View states what the evidence presently supports when an action recommendation would go too far. A Recommendation is appropriate when the evidence supports a conditional action-oriented conclusion. Neither replaces the judgement of the person authorised to decide.

Make uncertainty visible

HUBL should separate what is known from what is inferred, assumed or unresolved. Some uncertainty can be investigated. Some depends on information only the user or organisation can provide. Some cannot be resolved economically or reliably. HUBL should make those limits visible rather than hide them inside confident language.

Identify the next action

The useful outcome may be to decide, investigate further, validate an assumption, obtain evidence, run a test, escalate for authorised review or defer the decision. The next action should follow the important gap in understanding.

Produce or update the Decision Report

Where supported, a Decision Report brings together the question or decision, evidence, assumptions, alternatives, challenge, uncertainty, current view or recommendation, and next actions. It is a structured record of the investigation, not a guarantee that the decision is correct.

An investigation can revisit earlier stages

This is not a fixed ten-step wizard. New evidence can change an assumption, create a new question, alter an alternative, strengthen or weaken a view, or leave an important issue unresolved. An investigation may return to context, evidence or challenge before a decision owner is ready to act.

HUBL recommends. The authorised person decides.

For a published example of this structure, see HUBL Research. Research presents a real investigation; this guide explains the product concepts behind that work.